CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-14T08:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32795/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery and is visible mostly to the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.1 flare and eruption from Active Region 13784 (N14E03) starting around 2024-08-14T06:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 surrounding the eruption site, and post-eruptive arcades begin to form around 08:30Z. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal sharply increasing from 7nT at 2024-08-17T13:29Z to 17nT at 13:35Z and a period of negative Bz reaching -17nT, after which Bz stayed mostly positive. A jump in solar wind speed from 333 km/s at 2024-08-17T13:29Z to 432 km/s at 13:34 and sharp increases in temperature to near 200,000 K at 13:34Z and in density initially to 12 p/cc and eventually to 45 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-17T13:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-17T08:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 14/14:56Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 610
Longitude (deg): 2E
Latitude (deg): 15N
Half-angular width (deg): 33

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Lawrence Howard

Lead Time: 66.12 hour(s)
Difference: 5.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-08-14T19:22Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy